Friday, October 24, 2008

Handicapping UFC 90

Avoid the temptation to bet the long odds in the title fight

all week I have been hearing that Patrick "The Predator" Cote can surprise Anderson "The Spider" Silva and I don't disagree. Patrick has a rock of a chin and may take this fight into the later rounds but he is not going to win, not by decision not by knockout, Anderson is the best pound for pound fighter in MMA for a reason and won't under estimate Cote.

Still thinking of it? here is the breakdown currently the odds on Patrick Cote stand at +551 which is a nice line for fans of the underdog, but any real risk here in terms of your book value is an unnecessary risk, planning to bet Cote? bet a small amount and hope that the UFC has another stunning upset.

After reviewing the card my recommendation is to bet on the Josh Koscheck vs Thiago Alves fight, for a couple reasons. First Alves was originally slated to fight Diego Sanchez but due to injury Koscheck took the fight on short notice. Plus Alves is very good against a ground and pound style recently beating Matt Hughes convincingly who is essentially a much better Koscheck.

But the biggest reason to bet this fight is that Thiago Alves is the underdog? it almost seems a flaw in the lines but right now, the odds on Alves are +131. I am not sure if this is because fighters from The Ultimate Fighter are so popular or this still represents a line against Sanchez a phenomenal wrestler, or the bookmakers have just under estimated Thiago Alves.

Either way this bet represents the best risk reward scenario come Saturday

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